Ecological ri...ERI+MCR model_YANG Lian'an.pdf

J.Geogr.Sci.2023,33(4):823-844 DOI:https:/doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2108-8 2023 Science Press Springer-Verlag Ecological risk assessment and ecological security pattern optimization in the middle reaches of the Yellow River based on ERI+MCR model YANG Lianan1,2,3,LI Yali1,2,3,JIA Lujing1,2,3,JI Yongfan1,2,3,HU Guigui1,2,3 1.Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Northwest Univer-sity,Xian 710127,China;2.Yellow River Institute of Shaanxi Province,Northwest University,Xian 710127,China;3.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xian 710127,China Abstract:The middle reaches of the Yellow River represent an important area for the protec-tion and development of the Yellow River Basin.Most of the area of the river basin is within the Loess Plateau,which establishes it as a fragile ecological environment.Firstly,using high-resolution data of land use in the watershed from the past 30 years,landscape ecolog-ical risk(LER)sample units are defined and an ecological risk index(ERI)model is con-structed.Kriging interpolation is used to display the LER spatial patterns,and the temporal and spatial evolution of risk is examined.Secondly,the spatial evolution of land use land-scape change(LULC)is analyzed,and the correlation between land use landscape and ecological risk is discussed.Finally,Based on the LER model,a risk-based minimum cumu-lative resistance(MCR)model is established,and a comprehensive protection and man-agement network system for the ecological source-corridor-node system designed.The re-sults suggest that in the past 30 years,LER has a high spatial correlation and areas with extremely high ecological risks are concentrated in northwest and southeast areas of the region,of which the northwest area accounts for the highest proportion.Risk intensity is closely related to the spatial pattern of land use landscape.ERI values of forestland,grass-lands,and unused land and farmland are low,medium,and high,respectively.The trend of risk evolution is“overall improvement and partial deterioration”.Man-made construction and exploitation is the most direct reason for the increase of local ecological risks.The high eco-logical-risk areas in the northwest are dominated by deserts which reduce excessive inter-ference by human activities on the natural landscape.Recommendations are:high-quality farmland should be protected;forestland should be restored and rebuilt;repair and adjust the existing ecosystem to assist in landscape regeneration and reconstruction;utilize the overall planning vision of“mountain,water,forest,field,lake,grass,sand”to design a management project at the basin scale;adhere to problem-oriented and precise policy implementation.Keywords:landscape ecological risk;MCR model;ecological security pattern;middle reaches of the Yellow River Received:2022-01-03 Accepted:2022-08-25 Foundation:National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41601290 Author:Yang Lianan,PhD and Associate Professor,specialized in landscape ecology and agricultural GIS.E-mail: 824 Journal of Geographical Sciences 1 Introduction Land use landscape change(LULC)is the result of a direct response of human beings to the natural ecosystem(Li et al.,2019b;Darvishi et al.,2020;Zhou et al.,2020;Assaf et al.,2021)and can have a profound impact on environmental quality(Almenar et al.,2019;Sun et al.,2020),can threaten the survival of organisms(Duveiller et al.,2020),can cause many ecological problems and affect the value of ecosystem services(Wu et al.,2020).Complex natural processes and human activities can greatly interfere with the structure and function of landscapes,and ultimately have certain adverse effects on the structure and service func-tions of ecosystems(Wang et al.,2021b).Landscape Ecological Risk(LER)is used to evaluate such adverse consequences(Peng et al.,2015;Liu et al.,2018a;Luo et al.,2018;Li et al.,2019a;Wang et al.,2020a).Ecologi-cal risk assessment is an integrated system of human and environmental management(Johns et al.,2017;Carriger and Parker,2021;Mitchell et al.,2021).Evaluating ecological risks based on changes in land-use landscapes is an important means to demonstrate LER and the spatial differentiation of LER(Jin et al.,2019).At present,research on LER mainly focuses on small river basins(e.g.,Wang et al.,2017;Liu et al.,2018a;Kang et al.,2020),county areas(Liu et al.,2018a),and urban scales(Chen et al.,2021;Lin et al.,2021).Conclusions are often expressed as LER spatial agglomeration effects,regional differentiation patterns,spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and correlations between risk and land-use proper-ties.Larger regional scales lack more systematic and complete ecological statistics and monitoring data,and there are relatively few large-scale studies(Liu et al.,2015).Many studies choose landscape patterns to establish an index system,and finally establish model algorithms.This paper builds on the results of existing research(L