房地产财富对家庭消费的影响—从风险偏好态度的角度出发工商管理专业.docx

房地产财富对家庭消费的影响从风险偏好态度的角度出发 摘 要 21世纪初股市泡沫破裂居民的消费却没有明显下降，这现象使学者们开始从只研究货币、股票的财富效应延伸到至房地产财富效应的研究。具体到我国实际情况，从1998年住房制度改革以来，我国房地产市场突飞猛进，城市房地产价格尤其是商品房住宅价格持续上涨，引起了社会各界广泛关注和讨论。与此同时，我国居民消费率却呈现下降趋势，有些学者认为房价上涨对居民消费具有挤出效应，而另一些学者则持有相反观点，认为房价上涨使居民家庭财富增加，对家庭消费具有促进作用，观点不一，因此有必要对房地产的财富效应进行深入的研究。本文采用理论与实证研究相结合的方式，对我国居民的房地产财富效应及其异质性进行了研究。主要工作包括以下几方面：(1)搜索并整理了国内外关于房地产财富效应的研究，为进一步研究作基础；(2)结合经典消费函数理论，重新阐述房地产财富效应的传导机制并根据我国实际情况进行分析；(3)以生命周期-永久性收入理论模型为基础推导出实证研究模型，并放松理论假设引入风险规避系数，以研究家庭的风险偏好态度对房地产财富效应的影响；(4)利用全面的、最新的全国性家庭调查数据中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)2014 年数据，对房地产财富效应的存在性进行检验，并研究不同收入、户主年龄、风险偏好态度对房地产财富效应的影响。实证结果表明，总体上房地产财富对居民的消费有显著正向影响，但是影响比较微弱；金融财富的财富效应比房地产财富更小，且只对户主年龄为 16-35 岁的、低等收入的家庭显著。在房地产财富效应异质性方面，发现房地产财富效应对收入具有倒 U 曲线型，对中等收入家庭的影响最大。本文还发现户主年龄越大的家庭其房地产财富效应越小，可能与我国居民普遍遗赠动机较强的传统观念有关。本文还发现风险偏好程度越高的家庭，其房地产财富效应越大。最后，本文根据研究结果提出四点政策建议：合理调控房价、缩小贫富差距、完善金融市场尤其是住房金融市场、完善社会保障体系。房地产财富对家庭消费的影响基于中国家庭调查数据分析 关键词：关键词：房地产财富；消费；财富效应；风险偏好态度；微观调查数据房地产财富；消费；财富效应；风险偏好态度；微观调查数据 The influence of real estate wealth on household consumption-from the angle of risk preference attitude Abstract At the beginning of the 21st century,while stock price steeply fell,the residential consumption did not significantly drop.This led scholars to extend the study of wealth effect of money and stock to the study of housing wealth effect.Back in China,since the 1998 housing system reform,the rapidly development of Chinas real estate marketthe urban real estate prices,especially the commercial housing prices continue to rise-has aroused widespread concern and discussion in all circles.At the same time,the consumption rate of Chinas residents is declining.Some scholars hence think that the rise in housing prices has squeezed the consumption of residents.However,others hold the opposite opinionthey believe that the rise in housing prices increases household wealth will finally promote household consumption.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out in-depth research on the wealth effect of real estate.Based on the combination of theoretical and empirical research,this paper studies the property wealth effect and heterogeneity of Chinese residents.The main work includes the following aspects:(1)This paper searches and sorts out the domestic and foreign research on the wealth effect of real estate for further research,(2)Combining the classical consumption function theory,the paper expounds the conduction mechanism of real estate wealth effect and analyzes it according to the actual situation of our country;(3)Based on the Life cycle-permanent income,the empirical model is deduced.This paper also loosen the theory hypothesis to introduce the risk aversion coefficient,and study the effect of familys risk preference attitude on the real estate wealth effect;(4)By using comprehensive and up-to-date national household survey data,China family Dynamic Tracking(CFPS)2014 data,the existence of real estate wealth effect is tested.Besides,this paper studies the effects of different income,householder age and risk preference attitude on real estate wealth effects.The empirical results show that the real estate wealth has a significant positive but weak impact on the residents consumption.The wealth effect of financial wealth is smaller than that of real estate,and it is notable only for households with a low income of 16-35 years of age.It is found that the real estate wealth effect has inverted U curve type 房地产财富对家庭消费的影响基于中国家庭调查数据分析 on income,and has the most influence on middle-income families.The paper also found that the larger the household owners age is,the smaller the effect of real estate wealth is,which may be related to the fact that Chinese residents generally have stronger bequest motives.The paper also found that the higher the risk preference of the family,the greater the real estate wealth effect.Finally,according to the research results,this paper puts forward four policy suggestions:rationally control house prices,narrow the gap between rich and poor,improve and perfect financial market especially the housing financial market and establish and improve the social security system.Key words:real estate wealth;consumption;wealth effect;risk preference attitude;microscopic survey data 目 录 第 1 章 绪论.1 1.1 研究背景和意义.1 1.2 研究内容与思路.6 1.3 可能的创新与不足.7 1.4 本文的结构安排.8 第 2 章 文献综述.9 1.5 国外相关研究.9 1.6 国内相关研究.11 第 3 章 房地产财富影响消费的理论分析.13 1.7 经典消费理论.13 1.8 房地产财富影响消费的理论分析.20 1.9 房地产财富效应的影响因素.23 第 4 章 实证分析.26 1.10 数据来源.26 1.11 变量选择与数据处理.27 1.12 数据描述.29 1.13 房地产财富效应的存在性检验.30 1.14 房地产财富效应的异质性实证分析.34 1.15 稳健性检验.40 第 5 章 主要结论及政策建议.43 1.16 主要结论.43 1.17 政策建议.44 第 6 章 全文总结.48 第 7 章 参考文献.49 第 8 章 致谢.51 第 1 页 共 52页 第1章 绪论 1.1 研究背景和意义研究背景和意义 1.1.1 研究背景研究背景 财富效应，指的是某种财富的增减对消费或其他相关领域的影响。这一概念最早由 C.哈伯勒等人在研究非充分就业时提出，即货币财富效应，认为价格下降时，人们持有的货币财富(实际货币余额)增加，他们就会通过增加消费来减少其实际货币余额。随着经济社会的发展，现代家庭居民的财富已经不只有货币财富，还包括了房地产、债券、股票以及其他家庭资产。对财富效应的研究也从狭义的货币财富效应扩展到广义的财富效应，包括了金融资产和实物资产。早期对财富效应的研究主要关注以股票资产为代表的金融资产。1999-2001年的投机泡沫破裂，从美国开始向全球蔓延，全球股市大跌，家庭资产因而大幅度贬值。根据已有理论，居民消费也应该相应的降低，但奇怪的是这种猜想并没有被证实，各国消费并未显示减少。Greenspan 认为房地产市价格的飞速上涨使居民获得了可观的资本收益(capital