_STP_1450-2004.pdf

STP 1450 Probabilistic Aspects of Life Prediction W.Steven Johnson and Ben M.Hillberry,editors ASTM Stock Number:STP1450 mlrloA.ASTM International 100 Barr Harbor Drive PO Box C700 West Conshohocken,PA 19428-2959 Printed in the U.S.A.Copyright by ASTM Intl(all rights reserved);Fri Dec 18 15:59:36 EST 2015Downloaded/printed byUniversity of Washington(University of Washington)pursuant to License Agreement.No further reproductions authorized.Library of Congress Cateloging-in-Publicntlon Data(To come)Copyright?9 2004 ASTM International,West Gonshohocken,PA.All rights reserved.This material may not be reproduced or copied,in whole or in part,in any printed,mechanical,electronic,film,or other distribution and storage media,without the wdtten consent of the publisher.Photocopy Rights Authorization to photocopy Items for Internal,personal,or educational classroom use,or the Internal,personal,or educational classroom use of specific clients,is granted by ASTM International(ASTM)provided that the appropriate fee is paid to the Copyright Clearance Center,222 Rosewood Drive,Danvers,MA 01923;Tel:978-750-8400;online:http J/www.cop yri Review Policy Each paper published in this volume was evaluated by two peer reviewers and at least one editor.The authors addressed all of the reviewers comments to the satisfaction of both the technical editor(s)and the ASTM Intemational Committee on Publications.To make technical information available as quickly as possible,the peer-reviewed papers in this publication were prepared camera-ready as submitted by the authors.The quality of the papers in this publication reflects not only the obvious efforts of the authors and the technical editor(s),but also the work of the peer reviewers.In keeping with long-standing publication practices,ASTM International maintains the anonymity of the peer reviewers.The ASTM International Committee on Publications acknowledges with appreciation their dedication and contribution of time and effort on behalf of ASTM International.Printed in Lancaster,PA October 2004 Copyright by ASTM Intl(all rights reserved);Fri Dec 18 15:59:36 EST 2015Downloaded/printed byUniversity of Washington(University of Washington)pursuant to License Agreement.No further reproductions authorized.Foreword The Symposium on Probabilistic Aspects of Life Prediction was held in Miami,FL on 6-7 November 2002.ASTM International Committee E8 on Fatigue and Fracture served as sponsor.Symposium chairmen and co-editors of this publication were W.Steven Johnson,Georgia Institute of Technology,Atlanta,GA and Ben Hillberry,Purdue University,West Lafayette,IN,iii Copyright by ASTM Intl(all rights reserved);Fri Dec 18 15:59:36 EST 2015Downloaded/printed byUniversity of Washington(University of Washington)pursuant to License Agreement.No further reproductions authorized.Contents Overview vii SECTION I:PROBABILISTIC MODELING Probabilistie Life Prediction Isnt as Easy as It Looks-c.ANNIS 3 Probabdistic Fatigue:Computational Shnuation-c.c.CHAMIS AND S.S.PAl 15 The Prediction of Fatigue Life Distributions from the Analysis of Plain Specimen Data-D.P.SHEPHERD 30 Modeling Variability in Service Loading Spectra-D.F.SOCIE AND M.A.POMPETZKI 46 SECTION II:MATERIAL VARIABILITY Probabilistic Fracture Toughness and Fatigue Crack Growth Estimation Resulting From Material Uncertainties-B.FARAHMAND AND F.ABDI 61 Predicting Fatigue Life Under Spectrum Loading in 2024-T3 Aluminum Using a Measured Initial Flaw Size Distribution-E.A.DEBARTOLO AND B.M.HILLBERRY 75 Extension of a Microstructure-Based Fatigue Crack Growth Model for Predicting Fatigue Life Variability-M.p.EGlCr AND K.S.CHAN 87 Scatter in Fatigue Crack Growth Rate in a Directionaliy Solidified Nickel-Base Snperalloybs.HIGHSMITH,JR.AND W.S.JOHNSON i04 Mechanism-Based Variability in Fatigue Life of Ti-6A1-2Sn-4Zr-6Mo-s,K.JHA,J.M.LARSEN,A.H.ROSENBERGER,AND G.A.HARTMAN 116 Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures with CARES/Life-N.N.NEMETH,O.M.JADAAN,T.PALF1,AND E.H.BAKER 128 V Copyright by ASTM Intl(all rights reserved);Fri Dec 18 15:59:36 EST 2015Downloaded/printed byUniversity of Washington(University of Washington)pursuant to License Agreement.No further reproductions authorized.vi CONTENTS Fatigue Life Variability Prediction Based on Crack Forming Inclusions in a High Strength Alloy Steel-P.s.SHAME,B.M.HILLBERRY,AND B.A.CRAIG SECTION III:APPLICATIONS 150 Preliminary Results of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commissions Pressurized Thermal Shock Rule Reevaluation Project-T.L.DICKSON,P.T.WILLIAMS,B.R.BASS,AND M.T.KIRK 167 Corrosion Risk Assessment of Aircraft Structures-M.LIAO AND J.P.KOMOROWSKI 183 A Software Framework for Probabilistic Fatigue Life Assessment of Gas Turbine Engine Rotors-R.CRAIG MCCLUNG,M.P.ENRIGHT,H.R.MLLWATER,G.R.LEVERANT,AND S.J.HUDAK,JR.199 Application of Probabllistie Fracture Mechanics in Structural Design of Magnet Components Parts Operating Under Cyclic Loads at Cryogenic Temperatures-M.