顾忠炜毕业论文初稿.docx

人民币升值对我国外贸的影响 摘　 要 近年来，伴随世界金融行业的全球化，一体化趋势的产生，汇率，是世界价格系统内最关键的构成方面，变成关联各个国家的桥梁。从而被各国得以重视。对外开放以前，国内对外贸易被国家主管，人民币汇率和国内进出口贸易没有关系。在对外开放以后，国内对外贸易和人民币汇率的关系更加紧密。人民币汇率变化开始影响国内出口经济，而不断进行的改革促使人民币汇率具有更大的弹性。汇率制度的改革，对国内对外贸易的发展具备重要的积极影响。所以，对人民币汇率的分析，对于我国进出口贸易的作用，不管是在学术上或是政策上，都具备一定的现实价值。 本文重点叙述了分析背景和各个国家对于汇率变化的相关分析，且对有关观点理论、定义开展全面叙述。也分析人民币汇率体制的具体发展历程和现实情况。此外对和人民币汇率变化相关的多种因素开展研究。之后，基于人民币汇率对中国外贸的作用开展深入研究，得到人民币汇率提高对我国出口所产生的明显影响，而对进口的限制影响不显著等结果。最终，科学评估了人民币汇率变化对国内外贸的影响，且基于国内现实情况以及宏观环境指出合理的意见。 关键词： 人民币升值 国际贸易 汇率变动 II The impact of RMB appreciation on China’s foreign trade ABSTRACT In recent years, with the globalization and integration of the international financial market, exchange rate, as one of the most important components of the international price system, Before the reform and opening up, the foreign trade of our country was monopolized by the state, and the RMB exchange rate was out of touch with the import and export trade of our country. After the reform and opening up, The relationship between China's foreign trade and the RMB exchange rate is increasingly close. The change of the RMB exchange rate directly stimulates China's exports, and the repeated reforms have made the RMB exchange rate more flexible. Therefore, the study of RMB exchange rate is necessary for the influence of China's import and export trade, whether in academic or policy. This paper introduces the writing background of the article, as well as the domestic and foreign research on the exchange rate fluctuation, and gives a comprehensive discussion on the relevant theoretical concepts. It also reviews the development process and current situation of the RMB exchange rate system. At the same time, it analyzes the various factors that affect the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. Then, it makes an empirical analysis on the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's foreign trade, and concludes that the rise of RMB exchange rate plays a significant role in promoting China's exports. Finally, the paper objectively evaluates the influence of RMB exchange rate change on China's foreign trade, and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions according to the situation of our country and the international environment. Key Words: appreciation of the RMB international trade fluctuations in exchange 人民币升值对我国外贸的影响 目 录 绪论 1 1 汇率变动影响外贸的相关理论分析 3 1.1 理论 3 1.1.1 购买力平价理论 3 1.1.2 重商主义理论 3 1.1.3 弹性分析理论 3 1.1.4 不完全汇率传递理论 3 1.2 分析 4 1.2.1 B-S效应 4 1.2.2 J曲线效应 5 1.2.3 吸收分析法 5 1.2.4 货币分析法 5 2 人民币汇率及我国外贸的现状概述 6 2.1 人民币汇率的现状分析 6 2.1.1 升值现状 6 2.1.2 升值原因 6 2.2 我国对外贸易的发展情况 7 2.2.1 我国对外贸易总额 7 2.2.2 我国对外贸易结构 7 3 人民币升值 9 3.1 人民币升值影响我国外贸 10 3.1.1 人民币升值影响我国的对外贸易额 10 3.1.2 人民币升值影响我国的外贸商品结构 11 3.2 人民币升值影响我国外贸的路径 10 3.2.1 人民币升值通过物价影响我国国际贸易 11 3.2.2 人民币升值通过国民收入影响我国国际贸易 11 4 对策建议 12 4.1 对政府的建议 12 4.1.1 政府加大调控力度，增加高新产业扶持力度 12 4.1.2 提高居民消费水平，促进产品结构调整 12 4.1.3 拓宽全球贸易市场 12 4.2 对企业的建议 13 4.2.1 优化出口就业结构，积极发展内需产业 13 4.2.1 积极做好企业合并，做好企业长远的发展计划 4.2.3 调整就业机构 14 结论 15 参考文献 16 谢辞 1 IV IV The impact of RMB appreciation on China’s foreign trade Contents Introduction 1 1 Exchange rate fluctuations affect the relevant theoretical analysis of foreign trade 3 1.1 The theory 3 1.1.1 The theory of purchasing power parity 3 1.1.2 The mercantilist theory 3 1.1.3 Thoery of elasticity and analysis 3 1.1.4 Incomplete exchange rate transfer theory 3 1.2 The analysis 4 1.2.1 B-S effect 4 1.2.2 J curve effect 5 1.2.3 Absorption analysis 5 1.2.4 Monetary analysis 5 2 The RMB exchange rate and the current situation of China’s foreign trade 6 2.1 Analysis of the current situation of RMB exchange rate 6 2.1.1 Appreciation of the status quo 6 2.1.2 To appreciate reason 6 2.2 The development of China’s foreign trade 7 2.2.1 Total foreign trade of our country 7 2.2.2 Chian’s foreign trade structure 7 3 RMB appreciation 9 3.1RMB appreciation affects China's Foreign Trade 9 3.1.1 RMB appreciation affects China's Foreign Trade 9 3.1.2 The appreciation of RMB affects the Commodity structure of China's Foreign Trade 9 3.2 The influence of RMB appreciation on China's Foreign Trade 10 3.2.1 RMB appreciation affects China's International Trade through Price 10 3.2.2 RMB appreciation affects China's International Trade through National income 11 4 Countermeasures and suggestions 12 4.1 Advice to the goverment 12 4.1.1 The goverment steps up its efforts to control and increase the support of the high-tech industry 12 4.1.2 Increase consumer spending and promote structural adjustment 12 4.1.3 Expand the global trade market 12 4.2 The construction of enterprises 13 4.2.1 Optimize the employment structure and actively develop domestic demand 13 4.2.2 Do a good job in merging enterprises and make long-term development plans 14 4.2.3 Adjust employment structure 14 Conclusion 15 References 16 Acknowledgments 17 绪论 国际贸易的发展是如今改革创新的总体目标。近些年来，国内对外贸易发展效果显著，和世界其余国家建立紧密的关系，国内出口量也不断增加，在全球经济发展中具备关键作用。但不得不承认的是